Hidden fragilities: resilience and global economic uncertainty

The global economy is deceptively fragile. Geopolitical tensions, inflation, government debt in the West and rising protectionism are colliding with accelerating technological, innovation, climate climate and cyber risks. Long seen as a stabilising force, the resilience of the American economy is under scrutiny. Heavy investment in artificial intelligence (AI) and digital infrastructure underpins soaring company valuations. But what happens if confidence erodes? Is this momentum sustainable—particularly if growth slows, inflation proves sticky or financial markets tighten? Meanwhile, China is capitalising on America’s erratic foreign policy, presenting itself as a more reliable partner. European countries are spending more on defense and digital transformation, and Asian and African ones are reassessing supply chains—and the direction they send their resources.